Welcome back to the Thursday Throwdown, folks. We know you missed us yesterday when we skipped our Top Five for the first time since August, but with no movement and only our top three still standing, we figured it's time to focus on what we've got before us - two great matchups that will decide regional championships and state semifinal spots.
Today we'll take a closer look at Potomac Falls-Broad Run II by breaking down the matchups at the quarterback, running back, wide receiver and defensive positions. This might look pretty familiar to those of you who read us regularly since we essentially did the exact same thing before the first matchup on October 24. Well, it's a new day and we expect a different type of game Friday night - and Panther fans are certainly hoping for a different result than the 38-0 rout they witnessed in Week 9.
Tenorio and I will alternate teams with each position and as always, we're just debating for the sake of argument. Let us know what you think in the polls below each matchup and the comments section below. I'll be front and center for this game tomorrow night and I'm looking forward to a good one.
Which quarterback has the bigger night under the lights in Ashburn: Gregory Woodlief (PF) or Chris Jessop (BR)?
Gregory Woodlief has thrown at least one TD pass in 9-of-11 games this season. (Photo by Richard A. Lipski, The Washington Post) In the two teams' first meeting in October,
Gregory Woodlief had his worst game of the season. The senior signal-caller complete just 9-of-20 passes for 137, no touchdowns and two interceptions. He was also stuffed on the ground, backtracking for minus-20 yards on seven carries. There's no doubt the Panthers will need a much stronger performance from their QB for them to have a chance at knocking off the Dulles District champs. Woodlief has accounted for at least three touchdowns - with his arm and his legs - in eight of the Panthers' 11 games and the only two games in which he didn't produce a TD were the loss to Broad Run and Potomac Falls' win over James Wood on Friday. With the Spartans' defense keying on the run as they did in the first matchup, Woodlief must take advantage of the openings his receivers have on the outside, however brief they might be. Last week, junior WR Tarrell Owens was completely shut down, but that created good matchups for seniors Chad McMichael and Chris Pelto, who had his best game of the season. Broad Run will likely pound the ball and limit Jessop's passing attempts, so it won't take a ton of production from Woodlief to do more than his counterpart, but for the Panthers to win the game and continue the best season in school history, Woodlief will need to come up huge.
- MB
While the Spartans senior quarterback hasn't put up the biggest numbers this season, there's no doubting his impact when his number is called. Against Loudoun County last week, Chris Jessop completed just one pass, but it was good for a 34-yard touchdown to Adrian Flemming. Right now, Jessop is being asked to manage the game and not make mistakes (he's thrown just two INTs this season). After all, he's got the best running back duo in the Dulles District behind him. And while Woodlief may end up putting up bigger numbers, there's no arguing that Jessop will turn in his usual solid, mistake-free performance with likely a touchdown or two mixed in as Potomac Falls gambles in man-coverage while they look to stop T.J. Peeler and Breon Earl in the running game. - PT
Chris Jessop has only thrown two interceptions all season. (Photo by Preston Keres, The Washington Post)
Which running back racks up the most yards on Friday night: Michael Baker (PF) or T.J. Peeler (BR)?
Michael Baker leads the district in rushing yards (1,424) and touchdowns (19). (Photo by Richard A. Lipski, The Washington Post) Michael Baker had a tough night against the Spartans defense when these two teams last met, managing just 29 yards on eight carries. But there are plenty of reasons to think that won't happen again. For one, Baker has 1,424 yards on the season -- an average of 139.5 in the Panthers other 10 games. Secondly, Baker won't get just eight carries this time around against Broad Run. I think Potomac Falls will look to hit quick slants and hitches to its receivers Chad McMichael and Tarrell Owens as they look to spread the Broad Run defense out and set up more Baker runs. With two starting offensive linemen out, the Panthers wont win battles against an eight or nine-man Broad Run defensive front. Finally, Baker's learned his lessons against Broad Run and found success against two good defenses in Briar Woods and Dominion, rushing for 297 and 192 yards respectively. Broad Run's defense is still the best around, and they'll definitely be looking to shut Baker down, but he has a chance to break a big run or two if the Panthers can effectively pass the ball.
- PT
The one-two backfield punch of Breon Earl and T.J. Peeler has proven to be an unstoppable combination for the Spartans this season. No team has held both running backs out of the end zone in a game and both rushers have found paydirt in seven of the eight games they've played together.
T.J. Peeler rushed for 80 yards and two scores in Broad Run's win against Potomac Falls. (Photo by Preston Keres, The Washington Post) And while Earl has been a playmaker in all facets of the game - earning him Dulles District Offensive Player of the Year honors - Peeler has become the powerful, punishing runner in between the tackles that wears down defenses over the course of the game. Since returning from an early-season elbow injury, the junior has piled up 764 yards and 12 TDs on 67 carries, good for an 11.4 yards per carry average. The first time around against Potomac Falls, Peeler was held to 80 yards on 17 carries, but found the end zone twice. With the Panthers potentially missing defensive linemen Mason Mehalic and David Zedan for a second straight game, look for Peeler to get his fair share of carries, especially early on as the Spartans look to control the tempo in front of their home crowd. Both Paul and I have said Peeler's performances could propel the Spartans into the state championship game and with another big night on Friday, they could be just one game away from that goal.
- MB
Which big-play wideout makes the bigger impact in the regional final: Chad McMichael (PF) or Adrian Flemming (BR)?
Chad McMichael leads the district in receiving with 777 yards and nine touchdowns. (Photo by Leah L. Jones, The Washington Post) First Team All-District selection
Chad McMichael was one of the few Panthers to have a decent game against Broad Run the first time around. In that contest he caught five balls for 72 yards, right around his season average of 70.6 yards per game. The senior came up huge for his team in last week's win against James Wood, catching a season-high nine passes for 131 yards and continuously working the sidelines to move the chains in the second half. In that game, the Colonels focused on stuffing Baker in the running game, something the Spartans did effectively in Week 9 and will likely try to accomplish again tomorrow night. They'll also stick cover corner Jessop on Owens to limit big play damage through the air. This again means McMichael will have space to work along the sidelines and as a check-down receiver in the middle of the field. He's been Woodlief's favorite target all season and expect the two to be locked in again in this big game. If Woodlief can connect with McMichael on a few short routes early on to pick up first downs, it will give the QB more confidence in the pocket and ease the pressure on Baker up the middle.
- MB
Adrian Flemming is one of the most physically-gifted athletes in Region II as far as size and speed go, and when given an opportunity to go up and get the ball he usually does. Against the Raiders, he made a great acrobatic catch in which he trapped the ball in between his legs almost like he was going to do a crossover. And in the past three weeks, Flemming has hauled in four touchdowns -- including a 132-yard, two-touchdown performance against Park View in the regular season finale.
Adrian Flemming is Broad Run's top target in the passing game. (Photo by Richard A. Lipski, The Washington Post) You have to believe that Potomac Falls will be going into tomorrow night's clash looking to stop the Broad Run rushing attack first and foremost, and that likely means a one-on-one match-up between Flemming and a Panthers DB (maybe Tarrell Owens). If that happens, Spartans Coach Mike Burnett will definitely look to take a few shots deep to Flemming and he could be in for another performance similar to that 132-yard showing against Park View.
- PT
Which defense makes the difference for its team: Potomac Falls or Broad Run?
The Panthers have held their last three opponents to 18 points per game after giving up 38 to Broad Run. (Photo by Richard A. Lipski, The Washington Post) The
Panthers defense may not be as dominant as Broad Run this season, but it certainly is filled with playmakers, with many of the big offensive names on the defensive side of the ball. Owens has four pick-sixes this season, and Potomac Falls has proved opportunistic in creating turnovers and turning those into touchdowns. Just last week against James Wood, it was a Pelto sack and forced fumble that was returned Zac Duffin that turned the tide of the game and dug the Panthers out of a hole. Broad Run is good at getting its yards when need be so it may be tough for the Panthers to limit the yards against category. But against the Spartans' talented offense and with everything on the line, the Panthers athleticism creates a high-risk, high-reward option, with Potomac Falls stacking the box and looking to force Broad Run to the air early as they hope to jump some routes and pull down some interceptions.
- PT
The Spartans effectively short-circuited Potomac Falls' high-flying offense in the first meeting and they'll be looking to do the exact same thing in round two. The key to stopping the Panthers is bottling up All-District running back Michael Baker and forcing Woodlief to beat you through the air while avoiding mistakes. Baker was held to 29 yards on eight carries and the whole Panthers' team only rushed for a total of eight yards on the night. Dulles District Defensive Player of the Year Kenny McAdow will again be charged with leading the front seven in stuffing the run and putting pressure on Woodlief in the pocket without sending extra guys on blitzes. Last week the Spartans gave up a season-high 266 rushing yards to Loudoun County and you can bet the coaching staff had the defense working hard to correct their mistakes this week in practice. Fortunately for Broad Run, with Jessop, Flemming, Earl and Peeler pulling double-duty in the secondary, they've got guys with enough size, speed and ball-hawking ability to take advantage of any mistakes Woodlief might make. There's no reason to change a gameplan that held the district's highest scoring offense scoreless in their first matchup so look for more of the same from the Broad Run defense as they force Potomac Falls to make adjustments on their offensive end. - MB
Chris Jessop (left) held Tarrell Owens to two catches for 42 yards in the first meeting. (Photo by Preston Keres, The Washington Post)
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